ECL '25: Winter - Elite | Storylines Down the Stretch

With the ECL Elite regular season officially passed the halfway point for most teams, let's take a quick look around the league and talk about some of the biggest storylines around the division as we approach the latter stages of the regular season!
 

The Core Four - Top 4 Spots Look Secure Barring Late Collapse
 

1.   Tohtorit (51 pts) - 4 games remaining 

2.  Parasite (48 pts) - 10 games remaining 

3.  Mustaa Kultaa (47pts) - 8 games remaining

4.  Voittamaton (46pts) - 6 games remaining 

Considering that there is only one week to go in the regular season, the nine-point gap between 4th and 5th, and the fact that the maximum points total that anyone below them can earn is 55, I think that it'd be pretty safe to assume that these teams will be your top four seeds in the playoffs, though the order could still shift a good bit.

We'll start at the top with Tohtorit, who even though they have just four games remaining, have put themselves in a great position heading into playoff time. Though Tohtorit brought back all six starters, the biggest question for this group coming into last season was whether or not they would be able to replicate their success from the Spring '23 season, as many saw their 4th place finish as a surprise after not participating in Elite during the Winter '23 season. Their response? 51 points in 24 games, with 13 of their 18 wins coming in regulation. This group also has a 2-2 record against fellow top-four teams, splitting their respective series' with Parasite and Voittamaton.

Speaking of those two teams, I don't think anyone is surprised to see them up here in the standings. These two have been the class of Europe for some time now, and this season has been no exception. We'll talk about Parasite more extensively later. Voittamaton continue to be the epitome of consistency, with the group looking to be well on their way to another Top 4 finish. I think you could even make the case that their record could be better than it is, as all of their losses this season have come by just one goal. In contrast out of their 15 total wins, only three of them have been by one goal. With a few plays having gone differently, you could argue that they would be even higher in the standings. 

  Is Parasite Having The Best Regular Season in Elite History?

Parasite look to have the inside track to being the top overall seed, accruing 48 points with 10 more games to play. It was expected for this group to be dominant, but they've somehow still managed to surpass expectations, as the team has only lost one game all season, and that was their most recent game against Tohtorit (4-1 L). They also have the league leader in every offensive statistic - which is honestly nuts. They are currently averaging 5 goals for per game, which if they keep up, would be the highest in Elite Division history (Linkoping HC holds the record with 4.3 goals for per game in ECL 10). They are also allowing just 1.56 goals against per game which leads the league.

All of their new additions have fit in seamlessly as well. Valtteri @Vattuyy Virtanen leads the league in points (63) and goals (41) while his former Tunnel Vision teammate and captain Tomi @tomboo-_- Laitinen has been as steady as ever on defense, posting 26 points in 18 games while also only giving the puck away 98 times, which is one of the lower numbers in the league for defensemen who have played 15+ games. Meanwhile, Perttu @Beniittto Kemppainen (4th in the league in points with 52 and 2nd in assists with 34) and Niklas @NikkeDangles Tukiainen (2nd in the league in points with 57 and 1st in assists with 37) have continued to be one of Europe's most potent offensive duos.

Now I will say this, they have only played one of their fellow Top 4 teams, and 12 of their 17 total wins have come against teams outside of the playoffs. So I think that you could make the case that there is still more for them to prove against fellow playoff teams (their lone loss this season is against a Top 4 team in Tohtorit). However, in this division, dominance is dominance no matter how you chalk it up. And considering how dominant they have been, this team has earned the right to be considered the championship favorite as of right now. 

  Playoff EXEN or Regular Season EXIT?

This team has been the surprise of the season, and not for good reason. Coming into the season, many, including myself had EXEN as not just a playoff lock, not just as a Top 4 team in the league, but also as a true solidified championship contender. Though there is still some time to turn things around and things have looked slightly more up the last few games (5-5-0 in their last 10 games), EXEN looks like they will have to be in a true fight for the last few playoff spots, as they currently sit in 10th in the standings and are 8 points behind for the last playoffs spot with eight more games remaining. 

To be quite honest, I can't quite figure out how things have gone so wrong for this team. They have a collection of some of the most talented players in Europe, yet they have the lowest goals for average in the Elite division at 1.57. Five out of seven players on their roster that have played this season won an Elite Division championship in ECL '24: Winter or Spring, yet their longest winning streak of the season is two games and they're both in series sweeps. Now, they have played 7 of the 8 playoff teams already and the only one they haven't played is Heimo, who currently holds the last playoff spot. EXEN is going to have to be near perfect from this point forward in the regular season if they want to make it into the top eight. Even if they do, the maximum number of points that they can finish the season with is 48, so even if they do make the playoffs, it is unlikely that they'll finish any higher than the 7th or 8th seed.

If they can make it into the Top 8, then all will be forgotten. After all, the playoffs are the real season and the regular season doesn't mean anything once we get to that stage. If they don't however, this will undoubtedly go down as one of the most shocking and disappointing campaigns in league history. If you disagree or think that this statement is hyperbole, just go back and look at all of the preseason predictions from around the community. 

 Are GOONS Back To Their Contending Ways of the Past?

It's crazy how turbulent the past 6 months have been for GOONS. They went from being relegated out of Elite by Mustaa Kultaa, to earning their way back into Elite by winning in the qualifier and now being 5th in the standings and looking well on their way to making it into the playoffs barring a lot of things going wrong.

For a team that hasn't made it to the postseason since the Spring season in ECL '22, this would be a pretty big accomplishment. From November 26th  to December 10th, GOONS won 10 of their 11 games in regulation, so that hot streak is the primary reason that they are in this position.

They are 3-7-2 against playoff teams which makes me pump the breaks a bit when giving them the "contender" label, but 13 of their 14 wins this season have been by two or more goals, so they are clearly better than the teams outside of the playoffs. Regardless, this season has to be viewed as a success for a GOONS team that was seen as a rebuilder coming into the season.

 Mustaa Kultaa A Legit Championship Contender In Its First Elite Season?

One of the ECL's quickest-rising teams over the past two years, Mustaa Kultaa seemed to have the feeling and expectation of a team that could make the playoffs in its first Elite Division season. 20 games into their season, and so far, Mustaa Kultaa have been even better than advertised.

Currently, they place third in the standings and are acutely on pace to finish 2nd based on their points per game average. 14 of their 15 wins have come in regulation this season, and they actually have more overtime losses (3) than they do regulation losses (2). Oh, and both of those regulation losses were by just one goal.

They made more roster moves than any other team in the division this offseason and so far this season it has paid major dividends. The additions of forwards Aaro @xAaro89x Aarvala and Eetu @Launonexx Launonen have proven to be two of the biggest transfers of the Elite division this season, as Aaro is 5th in the league in points with 54 and 2nd in goals with 34. Launonexx on the other hand is the team's leader in assists with 27, which ranks Top 10 among all players. 

They also have arguably the frontrunner for Rookie of the Season and a candidate for Goaltender of the Season in Veeti @LatveX Laitinen, who has an 83.74 SV% and a 1.95 GAA in 20 starts. He also has put together four shutouts this season, which is the most of any goalie in the division. 

6 of their last 8 games will be against fellow playoff teams, including Parasite who they currently sit one point behind and are potentially battling for the #1 or #2 seed. That'll undoubtedly be the biggest test for this team, as they already have played Tohtorit during the first week of the season and lost both of those games. However, they actually swept both of their games against Voittamaton last week in a pair of one-goal victories, so they're 2-1-1 against teams the other three teams in the Top 4 of the standings. Regardless, Mustaa Kultaa looks like they are here to stay, and they could very well be the next success story of teams in the ECL who make the long climb to the top of the Elite division. Even if they drop those games to Parasite, I think that they've more than proven that they're amongst the best in Europe and should be considered a genuine title threat as of now.

Goal Scoring In The Elite Division Is At An All-Time High

So far this season, teams in the Elite Division are averaging 2.72 goals for per game. If this number sticks, it would break the all-time Elite Division record which was set in ECL 4, at 2.64. This comes after Elite teams averaged 2.39 goals for last season and 2.55 in the '24 Winter season.

As one could imagine, this has naturally affected the numbers that we have seen from goaltenders, with their stats being down slightly from what we saw during the ECL '24 seasons. 

Last season in the Spring, we saw 16 goalies with 10 or more games played have a save percentage of 80% or higher during the regular season, with the highest being 88.24% from Sebastian @FINSeRe Remes of Valokuitunen Esports. In the Winter season, this number was up to 18 goalies, with the highest save percentage being owned by Oskari @Zande95 Grönroos with an 88.13% with Tunnel Vision.

So what about this season? So far, just 10 goalies with 10 or more games played reached the 80% mark. This could potentially be bumped, as there are a few goalies who would need to play just two more games and maintain their current save percentage to qualify for this stat, and goalies that are hovering around 78-79% that could have good weeks and crack the 80% mark. The highest save percentage of any goalie so far this season is the 86.94% of Stan @Stammer70 Adamus of Tohtorit. 

The moral of this story? Though the collection of goalie talent is just as good as it always has been in the Elite Division, the change in gameplay for NHL 25, in combination with the skill and parity of Elite this season has opened up more goal-scoring opportunities for teams compared to past seasons. It is also not uncommon to see Winter seasons be a little bit more high-scoring than Spring seasons, though not by a wide margin.

Enjoy what you read? Make sure to check out our next piece coming out tomorrow (Sunday) that takes a look at the current ECL Elite Division playoff picture!