ECL '25: Winter - Elite | Playoff Picture Overview

PLAYOFF RACE HEADING INTO FINAL WEEK OF REGULAR SEASON

Ahh playoff pictures. Everyone loves them, especially when you are on the right side of them. The drama and chaos that it can create is something that every sports fan loves, and in the ECL Elite Division it is absolutely no different. With just one week remaining in the regular season, now feels like a good time to take a look at how the playoff picture looks heading into the final week to see who should feel good, who may be worried and what matchups this week will have the biggest impact on playoff seeding and positioning. We'll break these teams down by tiers and give a summary of their respective paths.

Clinched Playoff Spots / Can Clinch With One Win

1.   Tohtorit (51 pts) - 4 games remaining (have mathematically clinched playoff spot)

2.  Parasite (48 pts) - 10 games remaining (need 1 point to clinch playoff spot)

3.  Mustaa Kultaa (47pts) - 8 games remaining (need 2 points to clinch playoff spot)

4.  Voittamaton (46pts) - 6 games remaining (need 3 points to clinch playoff spot)

Last Four Teams In

5.   GOONS (44 pts) - 2 games remaining (need 5 points to clinch playoff spot)

6.  Polski Boys (37 pts) - 6 games remaining (need 13 points to clinch playoff spot)

7.  The Black Jacks (32 pts) - 6 games remaining (need 18 points to clinch playoff spot) (currently own tiebreaker over Heimo based on standings points per game)

8.  Heimo (32 pts) - 4 games remaining (need 18 points to clinch playoff spot)

On The Bubble / Teams To Watch

9.  Mythix (31 pts) - 6 games remaining (currently would own the tiebreaker over Heimo based on points per game)

10.  EXEN (24 pts) - 8 games remaining (currently own tiebreaker over TIKI TALK based on points per game)

11.  TIKI TALK (24 pts) - 6 games remaining

12.  Roots Gaming (23 pts) - 6 games remaining

Need To Almost Win Out AND Get A Lot of Help To Make It / Relegation Series Zone

13.   Renascor (17 pts) - 8 games remaining 

14.  Falun Coal Miners (16 pts) - 6 games remaining

15.   Vesa Pompa (14 pts) - 10 games remaining

Top 4 Teams

Tohtorit has clinched and each of Parasite, Mustaa Kultaa and Voittamaton would virtually have to lose out to not make the playoffs. So, congratulations to them. The biggest note of importance is that Tohtorit will likely surrender that #1 spot with Parasite, Mustaa Kultaa and Voittamaton all having games in hand. Parasite and Mustaa Kultaa will also be playing against each other this week, so that will be a critical matchup to look out for as it could very well determine the top two seeds.

Last Four Teams In

Out of the final four teams currently in the playoffs, GOONS look like they should be safe barring a few of the teams below the playoff picture getting hot. Since Heimo can not earn more than 48 points this season (remember that fact as we continue to go along), GOONS only need five points to clinch their spot, and that can either be earned through their own wins or through Heimo losing. It would take a lot to go wrong for GOONS for them to not make it into the playoffs, and though they only have one series left and it is against the best team in the league in Parasite, the work that they've already done should likely carry them into the Top 8.

Where things really get interesting is from 6-12. Polski Boys look like they should make their way into the Top 8, though there is significantly less room for error with just a 6 point gap between them and Mythix. Four of their last six games are against the two top teams in the league, and their other two games are against one of the teams chasing them in TIKI TALK, which feels like a series where they need to find their way to 4-6 points.

Meanwhile, The Black Jacks are in very familiar territory, holding on to one of the last playoff spots near the end of the season. Their series against non-playoff teams in Roots Gaming and Vesa Pompa will both be critical to win if they want to avoid the teams behind them taking their spot in the Top 8.

Holding the eighth and final spot currently is Heimo, who are probably in the most danger of the teams in the field currently. They don't have the tiebreaker over TBJ nor Mythix who are just one point behind them. They also have the least amount of games remaining of all of the teams around them. They also have to keep an eye on EXEN who have games in hand and could surpass them in the points per game tiebreaker if they get on a winning streak down the stretch. These two teams still have to play each other, and this series may as well be viewed as elimination games for both sides, as their path to a playoff spot becomes murky at best with two losses.

On The Bubble / Team To Watch

You know who wouldn't complain about that happening? Mythix. It's somewhat surprising to see them out of the playoff picture this late in the season after making it with little problems in the '24 Spring season. A slow start to their campaign this season put them in a precarious position, and now they are hoping to climb out of that early hole that they dug for themselves. They've won 4 of their last 6 games in regulation to keep their hopes alive, but 4 of their remaining 6 games are against two of the league's Top 3 teams in Tohtorit and Mustaa Kultaa. 

I'm going to be very frank and say this. EXEN should not be here. This team is way too good, way too talented, and way too accomplished to be in this position. The expectations for this team were sky-high after a Semifinals appearance in the ECL '24: Spring season and the star-studded transfers they made in the offseason...yet here they are. The ECL is just so unpredictable, isn't it? EXEN has two things going for them: they have more games in hand than just about every team around them and they have arguably the most favorable schedule of the bunch, as the highest-ranked team that they play is Heimo; who they are looking to pass for the last playoff spot. Their other series' are against teams behind them in TIKI TALK, Vesa Pompa, and Falun Coal Miners. They'll have to execute on winning those games if they want to get in and they quite frankly haven't done that this season, but on paper, things line up well for them to avoid what would be a disastrous outcome for their season. However, that outcome is also still very realistic even though they will still need some help ahead of them to ensure their place in the playoffs. 

TIKI TALK being in this conversation isn't "surprising" to me, but I do think it is for some. This is a brand that hasn't been in the Elite division since ECL 9 and made their way into Elite through a second chance Elite qualifier after Almost Famous disbanded last minute. Well, they're here and they have a chance to make it into the playoffs still, even though the odds may be somewhat slim. The highest amount of points that they can earn is 42, so it would realistically take them winning out and having teams such as EXEN and Mythix drop a considerable amount of games. Luckily for them, they do play EXEN who is one spot ahead of them, and Roots Gaming who are just one spot behind them. These two series will pretty much be an elimination series for both teams involved, as both sides desperately need to collect all six points to have a chance at passing Myhix, Heimo and/or The Black Jacks. It'll take a lot for them to make their way in, but even if they don't, this season was far from a failure from TIKI TALK and they should likely avoid having to play in a relegation series.

Roots Gaming is pretty much in the same position as TIKI TALK. They have a shot, but need to pretty much win out while also getting some help from the teams ahead of them losing. Playing against TIKI TALK and The Black Jacks gives them a window of opportunity, but they'll need to pretty much sweep both of those series to feel truly good about their chances.

Need To Almost Win Out AND Get A Lot of Help To Make It / Relegation Series Zone

Unfortunately for our bottom three teams, their hopes at a playoff birth look pretty dire, and it would take a miracle for any of them to get in realistically. Out of the three, the team with the best chance is Vesa Pompa, as they have more games remaining than any other team outside of the playoffs. However, the maximum amount of points that they can earn in the standings is 44, and that would require them to win all of their remaining games in regulation. Considering that they are 0-8-2 in their last 10 games, I wouldn't count on this happening.

Renascor maxes out at 41 points, and though they do play multiple teams around them and the two teams currently below them in the standings, them winning out in order to achieve that number feels quite unlikely. The room for error is simply too small, especially when you remember that they still have fourth-place Voittamaton on their schedule.

Mathematically, Falun Coal Miners are pretty much eliminated from playoff contention. Though they aren't officially out of it yet, the most points that they can earn for this season is 34. That can only happen if they win all of their remaining games in regulation, including two games against Parasite who have lost one game all season. Additionally, Heimo could eliminate them with just two points in the standings and Mythix could eliminate them with just three. And I'm not betting on either of those teams losing every game for the rest of the season.

What do you think? Do you predict we'll still see surprises in the last week? Let us know below!