Stats, stats, even more stats!!

[markalla2]

…sooooo I did some stats!

At first I was just interested who was right on what’s gonna happen if some X-Factors are to be banned – the comment section was on fire before ECL Spring  Probably the easiest way to check it was to compare the ECL 23 Winter & Spring stats in the Elite Division. I chose to analyze these equal sample sizes by average aggregates from both leagues:

• Regular season games only
• Forwards: TOP50 skaters in Points total (manually deleted defenders from that list)
• Defensemen: TOP30 in Games played
• Goalies: >14 games played

Let’s go through the banned abilities one by one and see what the numbers look like. All Data © SportsGamer

“If you ban Close Quarters, you need to ban goalie abilities too”

If the goalie abilities remain the same, less shots go in when CQ is removed? Well… kinda, yeah! Forwards certainly had less point production and a lower shot percentage while goalies had better stats across the board after the ability bans. Especially breakaways SV% increased significantly, though goalies face far less than one breakaway per game on average. But does it mean that the goalie abilities are too OP? A 0,7 %-unit increase in SV% might not be it. Some goalies made the argument that “banning CQ removes the shit goals” and that seems to be the case by the numbers.

Some personal observations: at the time of the ban polls and heated conversation, nobody was using the Shnipe or Make It Snappy traits and probably didn’t realize that those would, to some degree, balance out the end result. Goalies have used the same builds all the time.

“Banning truculence makes the game more enjoyable”

This one is a tough one to solve in numbers - how do you measure enjoyability? Some said that you lose the puck constantly on small bumps and the energy loss is devastating. So, let’s look at it this way: did defensemen have less hits and takeaways? Did the forwards have less giveaways and more time with the puck?

LOL the decrease in hits for defenders! Man I wish there was a record for pokes… Or if someone actually knows what the “interceptions” stat for skaters is, please let me know if it also counts for pokes and not just intercepted passes. Defenders’ takeaways remained the same, only a 0.05 increase per game and could be the result of the meta change, I don’t really know. Also, the TwP/G is up by 13 in-game seconds – more control breakouts? Less forecheck? Let’s keep in mind that not only defenders were using Truculence, quite a few forwards had it equipped as well.

Forwards had the puck for 5 in-game seconds more and gave away the puck slightly less per game. Those average aggregates aren’t much but proving a point: the game is more enjoyable for forwards after the ban.

“Big Tipper”

No-one was against banning the Big Tipper ability. After all, deflections aren’t done manually and banning the even more superior deflection abilities seemed like a good idea. Unfortunately, there isn’t a stat for deflection goals, only the deflections per player. A deflection usually comes from a defender’s shot attempt resulting in an assist for the defender – is there a decrease in assists for defensemen? Let’s take a look….

Interesting to say the least! Defenders shot the puck far less per game but their shooting % went up by 2 % and scored nearly equal amount of goals per game - did the meta change to defenders joining the rush more? Or did they shoot from the blue line as usual but more of the shots weren’t tipped and went in straight? I prefer the latter.

This one I find even more interesting: the amount of deflections per game for centers across different leagues. Even without Big Tipper, centers were making far more deflections in Spring vs Winter; tips are very good even without the extra ability and Elite teams know it. The meta change is even more evident when you look at the historical change from NHL22 to NHL23.

League-wide stats

Δ% means the % difference from the row above

When comparing NHL22 to NHL23, I think you can see the “more fun” aspect here. The penalty minutes were down by a massive margin, causing more up-and-down even strength hockey to be played. Shot attempt totals show how the deflections had a huge buff and the gameplay changes buffed offense. The huge increase in hits shows how dominant Truculence before it was banned, resulting in total hits being lower in 23 Spring than 22 Spring.

Conclusion of the ability bans

Banning the Close Quarters ability had the biggest direct impact of all the bans. It buffed goalie stats and nerfed forwards’ shooting percentage, but it was also the easiest to calculate without a huge margin for error. The previous meta was replaced by a slightly more balanced meta, one could argue.

Without Truculence defenders had far less hits, which however didn’t result in any less takeaways. Forwards had the puck for longer and didn’t give away the puck as often. The ban definitely took away the "crazy hits and bumps that make you lose the puck" but hitting is still a big part of hockey.

Deflections are somewhat OP even without Big Tipper ability and the stats confirm it.

Bonus stats for shits and giggles: “NA vs EU” 🔥

These stats won’t tell you who is better, NA or EU, but they are here to showcase the different playstyles of NA and EU. In NACL 23 Winter the skill difference between teams was quite massive, which means that the top teams in NA scored far more against the bottom teams than in ECL Elite. I think it would be better to merge ECL Elite & Pro (maybe even Lite and Core) team stats together to represent EU as a whole and then do the comparison - maybe even decide who’s better - but I didn’t have the time to do it. Maybe next time!

 

Edited July 5, 2023 by rapitzin

[seegasormi]

Rapitzin =🐐

Edited July 5, 2023 by seegasormi

[Keuschemisch]

Thanks for all the effort you put into that!

 

One thing to notice considering the Deflects: The Big Tipper Perk was released in the Season after ECL Winter. So that might describe the stats a bit better.

[markalla2]

9 tuntia sitten, Keuschemisch kirjoitti:

Thanks for all the effort you put into that!

 

One thing to notice considering the Deflects: The Big Tipper Perk was released in the Season after ECL Winter. So that might describe the stats a bit better.

Thank you sir! To each their own I guess, I find statistics fascinating. Might do some more if there's an interesting topic.

I literally had no idea Big Tipper wasn't available day one. I've always played D/G so probably that's why. That sure explains a lot 😄

[Baranizer]

That’s some great work out there man, appreciate the approach! Love it 🔥

[Keuschemisch]

vor 5 Stunden schrieb rapitzin:

Thank you sir! To each their own I guess, I find statistics fascinating. Might do some more if there's an interesting topic.

I literally had no idea Big Tipper wasn't available day one. I've always played D/G so probably that's why. That sure explains a lot 😄

Yes, at least "Silver Big Tipper". Only possibility in ECL Winter was to play the Grinder with "Gold Big Tipper". But as far as I remember no Center in Elite played that.