ECL '25: Spring - Elite | Playoff Race

Note: The information in this article is based on the situation on Sunday morning.
 

PLAYOFF RACE HEADING INTO FINAL WEEK OF REGULAR SEASON

With just one week to go before the end of the regular season, let's take a detailed look of where each team's postseason dreams, or relegation nightmares, stand heading into the games of the regular season. To make things a little more interesting, however, I decided to add in a different element to this article.

I decided to embrace the power of modern technology and used ChatGPT to come up with the mathematical chance for each team to clinch a playoff spot, as well as every other general seeding possibility. These numbers are based on 10,000 different simulations of possible outcomes. 

This is the first time that I've decided to do something like this, so if it's something that you enjoyed, let us know and we'll consider doing more stuff like this in the future!

We'll be looking at all 16 teams in the division and giving a short summary of where they stand, what the numbers tell us, and what the next week could look like as they get towards the end of their schedules. Hopefully you all enjoy, and make sure to tell us what you think will happen and what you thought of the article!
 

  Last Dance (51pts) - 1st in standings - 10 games remaining

Chance to Clinch a Playoff Berth: 100%
Chance To Finish 1-4: 99.98%
Chance to Finish 5-8: 0.02%
Chance to Finish 9-12: 0%
Chance to Play Relegation Playoff: 0%
Chance to Be Automatically Relegated: 0%

Last Dance sit in a great position heading into the final week of the season. Not only have Last Dance all but clinched their place in the Top 4, but they have also pretty much clinched their place in the Top 4, barring a catastrophic end to the season.

The next 10 games for Last Dance will be about strengthening their playoff positioning and looking to earn the #1 overall seed. The simulations gave them an 83.82% chance to clinch that top overall seed, the best of any team in the field.

Based on their recent form (14-1-0 in their last 15 games) and their favorable remaining schedule, I'd tend to agree with those odds, and would maybe even argue that they should be higher. I'd personally expect for Last Dance to enter the playoffs at the #1 overall seed, barring a late-season slump, but at bare minimum, they should find themselves finishing somewhere in the 1-3 range.

Remaining Series: Blackbirds, GOONS, vNexs, SSK ESPORTS and Tohtorit

 Mythix (46pts) - 2nd in standings - 10 games remaining

Chance to Clinch a Playoff Berth: 100%
Chance To Finish 1-4: 99.57%
Chance to Finish 5-8: 0.43%
Chance to Finish 9-12: 0%
Chance to Play Relegation Playoff: 0%
Chance to Be Automatically Relegated: 0%

Similarly to Last Dance, Mythix have virtually clinched a playoff spot and should very likely make the Top 4, meaning that they are merely fighting for seeding over the next 10 games.

Considering that this group finished 6th and 5th the past two seasons, clinching a playoff berth with 10 games to go is quite the impressive leap for this team.

It'll be a tough task for them to pass Last Dance for the top spot and their series against Parasite will likely shake up their seed projections dramatically, but at bare minimum they should be able to go into the postseason with a place in the Top 4. If they do, it'll certainly be well deserved. They also still have a chance to finish a to finish at the top of the table. Simulations gave Mythix a 13.51% chance to do so, second-highest of any team. 

Remaining Series: vNexs, NOVA, Parasite, SSK ESPORTS and The Black Jacks

 Mustaa Kultaa (45pts) - 3rd in standings - 8 games remaining

Chance to Clinch a Playoff Berth: 100%
Chance To Finish 1-4: 95.97%
Chance to Finish 5-8: 4.03%
Chance to Finish 9-12: 0%
Chance to Play Relegation Playoff: 0%
Chance to Be Automatically Relegated: 0%

Mustaa Kultaa is virtually a lock to make the playoffs, and are mostly playing to secure a Top 4 seed. They were able to do most of their work in the early to middle stages of the season, picking up 41 points in their first 18 games of the season.

They also still have an outside shot to finish with the top overall seed, but simulations give them a slim chance to do so at just 0.86%, likely due to their limited amount of games left and the gap in points between them and Last Dance. They are the last team that is eligible to clinch the top spot.

This group has cooled of a little bit over their last two series, as they were swept by SSK Esports and split their series with vNexs, but both teams are currently in playoff spots and are fighting hard to stay there, so those loses are nothing to be ashamed of. Their series against Parasite will undoubtedly be the biggest on their schedule and will likely be the difference between them finishing 4th or higher.

Remaining Series: EXEN, Polski Boys, Parasite and Vapor

 Parasite - (42pts) - 4th in standings - 10 games remaining

Chance to Clinch a Playoff Berth: 100%
Chance To Finish 1-4: 96.19%
Chance to Finish 5-8: 3.81%
Chance to Finish 9-12: 0%
Chance to Play Relegation Playoff: 0%
Chance to Be Automatically Relegated: 0%

As another lock to make the playoffs, Parasite is in position to not only clinch another Top 4 seed in the playoffs, but they also still have an inside track to finish 2nd with their two series against Mythix and Mustaa Kultaa coming up. They would need some help in order to secure the top seed, as the simulations only gave them a 1.81% chance. 

What also helps Parasite is that they're 8-2-0 in the last 10 games and have yet to lose back-to-back games all season, so based on how they've paced to this point, I'd be surprised to not see them move their way up in the standings before the regular season ends.

Though you could argue that this team has the toughest remaining schedule of any team in the Top 4, you could also make the point that they have the best opportunity because of that. Passing up Last Dance will tough to pull off, but I do believe that finishing right behind them is a more likely possibility; especially if they can earn at least 4 points against Mythix.

Remaining Series: GOONS, Mustaa Kultaa, Mythix, NOVA and Tohtorit

   Tohtorit - (36pts) - 5th in standings - 6 games remaining

Chance to Clinch a Playoff Berth: 67.68%
Chance To Finish 1-4: 0.13%
Chance to Finish 5-8: 67.55%
Chance to Finish 9-12: 31.42%
Chance to Play Relegation Playoff: 2.0%
Chance to Be Automatically Relegated: 0%

This is where the "playoff hunt" really starts. Even though they currently sit 5th in the standings, Tohtorit's position is far from secured. Their situation actually reminds me a bit of the situation that GOONS and Polski Boys were in during the Winter season. A tough remaining schedule, very few games remaining, and a point tally that doesn't give them the comfort needed to drop many more points. Those two teams finished 8th and 9th in the standings respectively. Simulations seem relatively confident about Tohtorit's chances though, as their 67.6% chance to clinch ranks 8th amongst all 16 teams.

The scary thing about where they stand is that there is a realistic chance that they could leave their last six games with no more than 6 points earned, as both Last Dance and Parasite are averaging over 4 standings points per series.  That would give them 42 points in the standings, which would put them in a dangerous spot.

Simulations projected that 46–48 points would be the mark for a team outside of the cutline to make their way into the Top 8. As of now, six of the bottom eight teams could realistically reach that threshold, though Blackbirds would have to win all of their remaining games to do so. Tohtorit need to steal some points against Last Dance and Parasite to feel good about their chances. 

Remaining Series: Heimo, Last Dance, and Parasite

GOONS - (35pts) - 6th in standings - 4 games remaining

Chance to Clinch a Playoff Berth: 7.43%
Chance To Finish 1-4: 0%
Chance to Finish 5-8: 7.43%
Chance to Finish 9-12: 77.85%
Chance to Play Relegation Playoff: 14.72%
Chance to Be Automatically Relegated: 0.03%

Unfortunately for GOONS, their playoff hopes appear to be grim even though they enter the final week placed 6th in the standings. The problem that GOONS faces isn't just their remaining schedule against two of the toughest teams in the league, but it is also their lower point-tally and the limited chances that they have to earn more points. Because of this, simulations only had them clinch a playoff spot 7.43% of the time, giving them the 11th-best odds in the division.

The most points that they will be able to earn is 47, and though any team can win on any given day, I have a hard time realistically seeing any team sweep both Last Dance and Parasite. GOONS also have been in a bit of a rut, as they're 3-6-1 in their last 10 games and have taken multiple losses to teams outside of the playoffs over the past two weeks, including Blackbirds, The Black Jacks and Vapor. Something that the simulations don't take account for. 

No team in the playoff picture will have to rely more on outside results than GOONS. When a team can't control it's own destiny, the less confident you can feel about their chances to make the field. This group looks bound for "no man's land", which is better than where they were a year ago when they were forced to play in a relegation playoff, but its still a step back from their performance a season ago where they were able to earn a playoff spot with 44 points. 

Remaining Series: Last Dance and Parasite

 EXEN - (32pts) - 7th in standings - 10 games remaining

Chance to Clinch a Playoff Berth: 88.3%
Chance To Finish 1-4: 4.02%
Chance to Finish 5-8: 84.28%
Chance to Finish 9-12: 11.34%
Chance to Play Relegation Playoff: 0.36%
Chance to Be Automatically Relegated: 0%

Despite a slow start to the season, EXEN was able to dig themselves out of a early hole and now find themselves in a great position to earn its third-straight under the EXEN brand (sixth-straight playoff if you want to go back to its time as JYP Jyväskylä, though only one active player remains from that group).

Their playoff chances would've been even higher if not for being swept by Polski Boys this past week, but it would still take a lot to go wrong for EXEN to not clinch a spot in the Top 8; especially with their remaining schedule being primarily against non-playoff teams. Their 88.3% chance to clinch is 5th-highest of any team in the league and the highest of all of the teams that have yet to clinch a spot.

They technically also have an outside chance to land in the Top 4, but it would require a wide range of circumstances that are highly unlikely. The goal for this team will be securing the 5th seed, something that feels very possible with where they currently stand and how well they have played as of late (7-2-1 in their last 10 games).

Remaining Series: Heimo, Mustaa Kultaa, vNexs, NOVA and The Black Jacks

 vNexs - (30pts) - 8th in standings - 10 games remaining

Chance to Clinch a Playoff Berth: 72.76%
Chance To Finish 1-4: 1.22%
Chance to Finish 5-8: 71.54%
Chance to Finish 9-12: 25.9%
Chance to Play Relegation Playoff: 1.34%
Chance to Be Automatically Relegated: 0%

Though they currently hold the last available playoff spot, the simulations seemed to favor vNexs' chances of making it in, as their 71.54% ranks 7th. Similarly to EXEN, they even have a slim chance to make the Top 4, but it's high;y unlikely. Though I definitely agree that they've put themselves in a great position to make the Top 8, I also feel slightly more pessimistic than what the ChatGPT simulations seemed to.

Now don't get me wrong, I like this vNexs team a lot. They have a ton of experience and have often played their best games during the last week or so of the season. My concern however is the inconsistency that has plagued this team at times. They're 5-5-0 in their last 10 games, and they've only earned maximum points in one series all season, and that was against a non-playoff team in Vapor. They've also dropped a pair of critical games to both Polski Boys and The Black Jacks, while splitting their most recent series with Blackbirds.

It just feels like this team has missed out on some opportunities for points against teams below them in the standings, and this can often be the difference between making and missing the playoff at the end of the regular season. They also still have to play the two top teams in the standings in Last Dance and Mythix. Though I think they are capable of stealing some points out of those matchups, their playoff hopes will likely be determined by how they do in their series against EXEN and SSK ESPORTS, as both are only separated from vNexs by 3 points or less. 

Remaining Series: EXEN, Last Dance, Mythix, NOVA and SSK ESPORTS

 Heimo - (29pts) - 9th in standings - 10 games remaining

Chance to Clinch a Playoff Berth: 61.77%
Chance To Finish 1-4: 0.55%
Chance to Finish 5-8: 61.22%
Chance to Finish 9-12: 35.77%
Chance to Play Relegation Playoff: 2.45%
Chance to Be Automatically Relegated: 0.01%

After a promising first week of the season that saw Heimo near the top of the standings, the group hit a wall during the middle part of their season and now finds themselves on the outside looking in for a playoff spot. Simulations still had this team making it 61.77% of the time, but those are just the 9th-best odds, so their chances seem sort of split.

GOONS and Tohtorit being in the position that they are in helps Heimo, but they will need to earn their way in by playing four teams that are all still fighting for positioning. I'll be honest in saying that I don't love how this group has looked over the last two weeks, as they're 4-5-1 in their last 10 contests and seem to be missing that offensive punch that they showed during the first week of the season.

Despite this though, Heimo still controls their own destiny. They have 10 games remaining and won't need any help if they can take care of business on their own. As a playoff hopeful, you really can't ask for much more than that. Their most consequential games will undoubtedly be their series against EXEN, SSK ESPORTS and Tohtorit. 

Remaining Series: EXEN, NOVA, SSK ESPORTS, Tohtorit and Vapor

 Polski Boys - (29pts) - 10th in standings - 8 games remaining

Chance to Clinch a Playoff Berth: 18.98%
Chance To Finish 1-4: 0%
Chance to Finish 5-8: 18.98%
Chance to Finish 9-12: 67.72%
Chance to Play Relegation Playoff: 13.28%
Chance to Be Automatically Relegated: 0.02%

Though the simulations seemed to be less bullish on Polski Boys' playoff hopes at 18.98%, which ranks 10th, I personally think they have a slightly better chance when you consider their remaining schedule and their performance against teams around them in the standings.

They recently swept EXEN and picked up 5 out of a possible 6 points in that series, which arguably saved their playoff hopes considering what the bubble currently looks like. Before that series, they had lost four-straight games against Last Dance and Mythix, so they really needed to find points and did exactly that against a fellow playoff hopeful.

Interestingly enough, Polski Boys have a record of 9-5-2 against teams that are ranked lower than 5th in the standings. Their one major blemish was being swept by Vapor on April 17th, which could be what comes back to haunt them if they miss the Top 8. However, with three of their four remaining series being against teams bound for "no man's land" or a relegation playoff, there is some genuine opportunity for Polski Boys to make it into the playoffs, even if they will need a little bit of help from others to do so.

Remaining Series: Blackbirds, Mustaa Kultaa, ONSE Esports and The Black Jacks

  Blackbirds - (28pts) - 11th in standings - 6 games remaining

Chance to Clinch a Playoff Berth: 0.38%
Chance To Finish 1-4: 0%
Chance to Finish 5-8: 0.38%
Chance to Finish 9-12: 32.71%
Chance to Play Relegation Playoff: 65.86%
Chance to Be Automatically Relegated: 1.05%

Though mathematically Blackbirds still have a chance to make it into the playoffs, it would take collecting every point possible in their last six games along with numerous results from other teams to going in their favor. Despite their potential of being a sleeper to make the playoffs coming into the season, this is a team that had zero games of Elite Division experience prior to the Spring. 

That's a difficult thing to overcome, as the jump from Pro to Elite is a significant shift in skill and game style. It shouldn't be too shocking that Blackbirds have had to learn, grow and adjust as they get used to the division. First-time teams making playoff pushes such as Mustaa Kultaa last season, or SSK ESPORTS this season are exceptions, not the rule, and each of those teams had a least a few players in its lineup with prior Elite experience. I don't think it'd be fair to say that this is a disappointing result for Blackbirds, and a mid-table finish feels like a fair and reasonable result for a team that is still on the ascent in the Elite division. 

Despite all of this, Blackbirds have likely avoided finishing 16th barring a considerable collapse and a major run from some of the teams behind them. Their goal from this point forward will be to hold on to a Top 12 spot to avoid playing in a relegation series; though this won't be an easy task with games vs Last Dance and Polski Boys still on the horizon. Stealing some points in one of those series, along with earning the majority of points in their series with Vapor, will likely be the key to maintaining their spot. Blackbirds will need to keep a close eye on The Black Jacks and NOVA, as both have games in hand and a path to surpass them in the standings. They've seem to find a decent run of form recently going 5-5-0 in their last 10 games, which will help their cause.

Remaining Series: Last Dance, Polski Boys and Vapor

 SSK ESPORTS - (27pts) - 12th in standings - 12 games remaining

Chance to Clinch a Playoff Berth: 72.72%
Chance To Finish 1-4: 2.37%
Chance to Finish 5-8: 70.35%
Chance to Finish 9-12: 25.55%
Chance to Play Relegation Playoff: 1.72%
Chance to Be Automatically Relegated: 0.01%

Coming into the final week with the best opportunity of any team outside of the playoffs, SSK ESPORTS are hoping to continue what has been a magical run in ECL 25 that goes all the way back to the final week of the Winter regular season in the Pro Division. Despite sitting in 11th, simulations actually give SSK a 72.72% chance to make the Top 8, one of the best odds of any team that hasn't clinched. You could argue that this is a little high considering their upcoming schedule, but the circumstances are mostly in their favor outside of that.

The favorable simulation for SSK ESPORTS comes from the amount of games that they have remaining and the points they've already earned. They'll have two very tough series coming up against Last Dance and Mythix, as well as a series against a fellow playoff hopefuls Heimo and vNexs, but SSK fullly control their own playoff destiny and have proven this season that they can beat playoff caliber teams in this division. 

The group haven't played since April 27th, so we will have to see if they can continue their winning form, but 6-3-1 in your last 10 games is a pace that's good enough for this team to make the field. It won't be easy, but I personally believe that SSK ESPORTS will end up making it in. Even if they don't make the playoffs, the worst likely outcome for them would be a 9-12 finish, which is a very respectable result for an organization that was in the Pro Division a season ago.

Remaining Series: Heimo, Last Dance, Mythix, vNexs, NOVA and Vapor

  The Black Jacks - (26pts) - 13th in standings - 8 games remaining

Chance to Clinch a Playoff Berth: 3.1%
Chance To Finish 1-4: 0%
Chance to Finish 5-8: 3.1%
Chance to Finish 9-12: 49.55%
Chance to Play Relegation Playoff: 46.88%
Chance to Be Automatically Relegated: 0.47%

The Black Jacks still are alive in the playoff hunt according to the math, but their 3.1% chance don't make for great odds. Combining this with how they have faired against the current playoff teams this season, I have a hard time imagining a miracle run coming from this group over the next week.  TBJ will not only need to win most of their remaining games in regulation, but they will also need some help around them in the process to have a realistic shot at the Top 8. Despite this though, they do have a realistic chance to avoid playing in the relegation playoff, which is huge with how successful the Pro division teams have seemed to be in those over the last couple of seasons.

The Black Jacks are 5-3-2 in its last 10 games and have done enough to give themselves a chance to surpass Blackbirds for the 12th spot with having games in hand. It's not a given and they'll still be disappointed to have missed the playoffs for the first time since the ECL 23 Spring season (back when they were under the ZSC Esports brand), but avoiding a relegation series would be a small win nevertheless. 

Barring a miraculous run to close out the season, it'll be either "no man's land" or a relegation playoff to maintain their spot in the division. Their series with ONSE Esports will likely be a big factor to their fate at the end of the regular season. Similarly to Blackbirds, they will also need to keep a close eye on NOVA's results over the next week.

Remaining Series: EXEN, Mythix, ONSE Esports and Polksi Boys

  ONSE Esports - (22pts) - 14th in standings - 6 games remaining 

Chance to Clinch a Playoff Berth: 0%
Chance To Finish 1-4: 0%
Chance to Finish 5-8: 0%
Chance to Finish 9-12: 0.42%
Chance to Play Relegation Playoff: 67.71%
Chance to Be Automatically Relegated: 31.87%

ONSE Esports have been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention after going 2-7-1 in its last 10 games. Similarly to Blackbirds, this is a new team to the Elite division. In fact, they earned their way into Elite the week before the season started by winning in a qualifier. However, a tough stretch with only three wins since April 16th ultimately sunk their chances at a playoff berth, and they will now likely be fighting to maintain their spot in the division for next season.

Their best chance is hoping to climb into a 9-12 spot, and even that feels like a tough battle that'll likely be decided between themselves, Blackbirds, NOVA and The Black Jacks. Luckily for ONSE Esports, they play the latter two teams to end the season and both are behind them in the standings. However, those two teams also both have games hand and they will still need Blackbirds to drop at least two regulation games while also staying ahead of each of the teams behind them. They will also need to keep an eye on Vapor, as even though the simulations seem to be on their side in terms of automatic relegation, a few wins from Vapor to end the season combined more losses from ONSE could see them slide down to that 16th spot and out of the Elite Division for next season.

It's not impossible for them to avoid a relegation scenario altogether, but it'll be a tall order. With where things currently stand, I don't favor their chances and neither did the simulations. ONSE Esports will likely be playing in a relegation series unless things turn in their favor. And unfortunately, automatic relegation isn't out of the question just yet either. 

Remaining Series: NOVA, Polski Boys and The Black Jacks

 Vapor - (17pts) - 15th in standings - 8 games remaining

Chance to Clinch a Playoff Berth: 0%
Chance To Finish 1-4: 0%
Chance to Finish 5-8: 0%
Chance to Finish 9-12: 0.33%
Chance to Play Relegation Playoff: 36.56%
Chance to Be Automatically Relegated: 63.11%

As things stand, Vapor have the highest odds of finishing 16th in the standings and being relegated from the Elite division. Though Vapor isn't a team that was viewed as a playoff favorite heading into the season, it at least seemed like a team that could compete for a spot and would like end up middle of the table, as they have plenty of experience throughout their lineup and brought in some respectable transfers.

This unfortunately hasn't come to fruition, as they're eliminated from playoff contention and would likely need to earn at least 16 points to avoid playing in the relegation playoff, and even then their place in the Top 12 wouldn't be safe. Their schedule is also a bit of a mixed bag between playoff hopefuls and a team currently ranked in the Top 4 in Mustaa Kultaa. 

I still believe that this team has talent in its lineup and their experience could be helpful to them in their fight as well. But with NOVA being just two points behind them and having six more games to play, Vapor is in serious danger of relegation. Even if they are able to avoid the dreaded last-place finish, they will still more than likely have to earn their keep in the division against one of the best teams in the Pro Division.

Remaining Series: Blackbirds, Heimo, Mustaa Kultaa and SSK ESPORTS.

 NOVA - (15pts) - 16th in standings - 14 games remaining

Chance to Clinch a Playoff Berth: 6.88%
Chance To Finish 1-4: 0%
Chance to Finish 5-8: 6.88%
Chance to Finish 9-12: 41.44%
Chance to Play Relegation Playoff: 48.22%
Chance to Be Automatically Relegated: 3.46%

Don't let their place in the standings fool you, NOVA are still mathematically alive in the playoff hunt, and they actually still have a fair chance at avoiding a relegation playoff series as well. We weren't able to give this team much shine in the midseason report since they had only played 10 games at the time, but since then, they've been able to play six games and actually managed to go 3-2-1 in those contests. Because of this, along with their league-high 14 games left to play, the simulations actually had NOVA qualify for the playoffs 6.88% of the time and gave them a very good chance to avoid finishing 16th.

Though their percentage to make the Top 8 was 12th-highest of all teams, I'll admit that a playoff spot doesn't seem very likely to happen for this group. The simulations suggest that NOVA will need to earn roughly 33 points to make the field, which means that they can only afford to take three more losses at most (regulation or overtime). It would take a serious run of form for them to make that happen, and I just don't know how realistic it is for them to win 11 of their last 14 games against the teams that they have to play against.

However, I do think that NOVA are a team that could manage to avoid a relegation series if they can play the way they did this past week or even improve on that. They kept their series with Last Dance rather close, falling 3-2 and 5-3 in regulation. They split their series with The Black Jacks, earning 4 out of 6 possible points with a regulation win and an overtime loss. Their most important result was probably their series sweep over Vapor, as they collected 5 out of 6 points over the team that is currently just two points ahead of them in the standings. These are things that the simulations didn't take into consideration, so you could maybe even argue that their 41.44% could be slightly higher than what it is.

Other than Mythix and Parasite, every team left on their schedule is either around the playoff bubble, or trying to earn their way into "no man's land". It's not impossible for them to make the playoff field, but I do believe that their path to a 9-12 spot is much more realistic. They're projected to need roughly 18 more points to avoid a relegation playoff, and they have 42 possible points still available to them. That equates to 6 regulation wins in 14 games. This feels doable, and though it won't be easy by any means, I think that they have reasons to feel good about their chances to make it happen.

Remaining Series: EXEN, Heimo, Myhthix, vNexs, ONSE Esports, Parasite and SSK Esports

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