ECL '22 Winter: Lite Playoffs Round 1 Preview - Any upsets?

The ECL Winter '22 Lite season has progressed to the playoff stage. You can expect the best games to be close at this stage full of drama, tough battles and hard hitting. Not to mention all the great goals and individual contributions of star players. As always, there is going to be some upsets and in fact we're very excited to see some underdogs eliminating major favorite teams. In this preview, we'll try to grasp a general view on each of the pairs and give prediction based on both teams performances thus far.

FILADELPHIA ACADEMY vs RoKi Esports

The best team in the regular season versus the last seeded team. FILADELPHIA ACADEMY has been dominating throughout the season with their stars and disciplined approach to their strategies. It can also be stated that they are coming into this series in great form with 9 wins out of their last 10 games. But - like it often goes - this is also a great opportunity for the underdog to perform some of their magic an pull the rug out from under FILADELPHIA's feet. Last year RoKi Esports did not redeem all their potential and they have a huge wall to climb in this series, in addition they aren't looking all that hot with 3-5-2 in their last 10 going into the playoffs. These teams played each other in the regular season, and back then FILADELPHIA ACADEMY won both clashes 4-1 and 2-1 OT. The 4-1 was closer in terms of the game events and in the 2-1 game FILADELPHIA ACADEMY dominated the whole game even though the decisive goal didn't come until in the OT periods. Similar luck and some massively disciplined defensive play is needed for RoKi Esports if they want to continue onwards from this series. 

Prediction: 4-0 to FILADELPHIA Academy

Golden Nights vs HC SHH

Golden Nights has an impressive form with 8-1-1 in their last 10 games. After a tough season in Pro last season, they are having a nice bounce back and are now redeeming their huge potential. This team has players blessed with tremendous skill that are now playing using their own strengths, with great confidence. Playing against these players that have that surprising factor is never easy, which is why HC SHH has a very tough hill to climb in this one. With their significantly weaker record overall and worse form coming into this one, thay'll need to turn thing around immediately. They are better than their 10 game record 5-3-2, and have proven that by challenging the likes of group winner Prima eSports in the group stage. If they improve from their last games they have all the ingredients to cause an upset.

Prediction: 4-1 to Golden Nights

Prima eSports vs Ace Hockey

In the mid-season report I highlighted Prima eSports to be playing a great season and the form has stayed great for them, with few mishaps along the way. Prima eSports also have a remarkable 8-1-1 record in their last 10 games, whereas Ace Hockey are coming into this one in a bit of poorer form. However, Ace Hockey had a very tough run to even qualify for the playoffs and have played under immense pressure already in the group stage, which could indicate a minor advantage for them in that department at least. That's basically all we can gice Ace Hockey, though, Prima looks to simply be the stronger team and is expected to bring all they've got going into the postseason, meaning they will be a tough train to stop. With a complete tight package of defensive strategy, Ace Hockey can hangi in there somehow and extend this a game or two, but I see Prima eSports advancing quite comfortably. 

Prediction: 4-0 to Prima eSports

Linköping HC vs Central Hockey Canucks

Linköping HC have a great deal of experience and despite having a few hiccups in the group stage, they managed to course correct and win their group in the end, with great form coming into these playoffs. Central Hockey Canucks have managed to win six games in their last 10 and extend into overtime three times, which indicated their defensive strength and composure. They played close games against Golden Nights losing both 4-3 and 3-1. Although it is only two games, the two close games show that they are capable of challenging the top teams in Lite. A similar battle could be expected in this one against Linköping HC. The Swedes are the clear favorite here but I don't think this series will be over in four games.

Bellizzi vs SEVERSTAL CHEREPOVETS

Likely to be an even series. Although we're seeing a 2nd seed going up against a 7th seed, the base level and form difference isn't that massive between these two. Despite being a great team, Bellizzi have possibly inflated their record a bit by going on a very hot eight win streak mid-season, beating teams like Oulunsalon HT along the way. Whereas SEVERSTAL CHEREPOVETS similarly were a bit streaky and managed to go on a six win streak, beating the likes of Linköping HC. These teams have played some very close games over the course of the season and could end up doing the same in this head-to-head. Despite the difference in seeds, I expect this to be way tighter.

Prediction: 4-3 to Bellizzi

Mora IK vs It's a nice city

Mora IK is the favorite in this series. But you should not let the placement in the standings affect the judgement of It's a nice city. They have beaten teams like Oulunsalon HT and were able to earn a point against FILADELPHIA Academy over the course of the regular season, so they are definitely able to challenge better teams in individual games, now they have to do it in a playoff series. For the part of Mora IK, they can move the puck and if they're able to keep up their tempo, they will outplay It's a nice city with relative ease. A good indication of their skill is the fact that they split points with Golden Nights earlier in the season.

Prediction: 4-2 to Mora IK

EHC Tatneft AK Bars vs Stone Age

It could be stated that this one is a tough one to predict. Stone Age has achieved some promising results in their campaign for example beating FRÖLUNDA HC ACADEMY and Tadpole twice. In addition to that, the team is very experienced, their downside, however, is their history of folding under pressure, and they've had issues performing in the postseason before. EHC Tatneft AK Bars is still a minor favorite as they have managed to string together a very stable group stage performance and definitely don't lack individual skill. If they're able to play as a unit, this could be in the bank for them, but all the ingredients for Stone Age taking the win are there.

Prediction: 4-2 to Stone Age

Tadpole vs Toxicity

Tadpole is the hottest team around coming into the playoffs with a clean 10-0-0 through their last ten games. In fact, their winning streak is now at 14 game, which shows how they have caught fire in the later half of the season. Toxicity has a 7-1-2 record in the last 10 games. They have beaten teams like Mora IK and Golden Nights during that 10 game span, which definitely indicates that they should be taken seriously, and that these games won't be a cakewalk for Tadpole. Tadpole are favorites but I can see Toxicity putting up a good fight.

Prediction: 4-2 to Tadpole

Valco vs Ultimatum

Ultimatum has played and won against teams like The Last Line and Murohoki this season, with close games against group winners Linköping HC also to take account of. Valco, on the other hand are in a great run of form with a record of 8-1-1 in their last 10. They have beaten both Golden Nights and Mora IK once in the regular season and proven their skill that way. They also had an impressive six game winning streak in the end of the regular season. It's notable that out of 30 games, Valco have extended 12 games into overtime (9 wins and 3 lost). The amount of OT wins is a telling sign about the determination and good nerves in their team. That along with their great form earns them the favorite spot in this series, while Ultimatum is looking to spoil the party.

Prediction: 4-2 to Valco 
 

Hunters vs TTK

These teams were in the same group in the regular season and shared points in some very close battles back then (3-2 to Hunters and 4-3 to TTK). Hunters have had many close games in general in the regular season with only four games in total extending the margin to over four goals. They are currently a strong team in good form, but are going up against a squad of very similar stature. Not much time has passed since these two clashed, so both teams have very recent knowledge of each other. Hunters have managed to string together better performances over an extended period of time, but TTK have surely gained confidence from challenging Hunters in their head-to-head.

Prediction: 4-2 to Hunters

Arkham Asylum vs Project X

Both of these teams have played many close games in the regular season. Arkham Asylum has 10 OT games with 7 wins out of them. Project X ended the regular season with a close game against group winners Prima eSports, where despite a 4-1 loss, the possession and play was very closely matched, which proves their ability to stick up against more skilled squads. Arkham Asylum ended the regular season in four wins and are looking good going into the series. They've struggled with scoring throughout the season but seem to have overcome their issues. The experience they have should be of high importance in the playoffs. This series looks quite even and Game 7 won't be a miracle.

Prediction: 4-3 to Project X
 

Powerhouse HC vs Baby Goons 

Baby Goons started the regular season well with three wins including a 7-1 thrashing of Mora IK. They also won Golden Nights in the beginning of the season. By the end their flight has slumped a little bit, causing their record in the last 10 to stand at 5-5-0 but they are still a good team and capable of succeeding in the postseason. Powerhouse HC are minor favorites in this series and look like a team that is slowly getting stronger as they go. They've got a great foundation and are in good form right now, but in general the starting point to this series is a rather equal situation. Baby Goons have a history of causing upsets in the playoffs and have last season in fresh memory, so they could cause some waves early on.

Prediction: 4-2 to Baby Goons

Bastu vs EHC Biel Bienne eSports

EHC Biel Bienne eSports are in great shape just before the playoffs: 5 wins out of their last 6 games and they've been able to gain some important points in big matchups throughout the season, putting them in decent position in the playoffs. Bastu has been a bit of an underperformer when looking at the roster, but some winning streaks that they've managed to go on throughout the season has put them around the middle of the pack in the postseason. I'd say that Bastu still has a lot in the tank and they could elevate their level by a few notches in the big games. EHC Biel Bienne could be able to pose a great challenge but Bastu most likely will advance to the next round.

Prediction: 4-2 to Bastu
 

Kymmenelta Baariin vs Armada Hockey

Kymmenelta Baariin had a strong start to the season with five consecutive wins including some big scoring outings early on. They also had a 9 win streak around the midway point of the season. Armada Hockey is an experienced squad that have beaten great teams in their history, and have had some runs of good form this season too. Armada Hockey have had better recent form but Kymmenelta Baariin had the better overall regular season. I wouldn't be surprised to see these two battle it out in a game 7. Kymmenelta Baariin will most likely elevate their level and it remains to be seen how Armada Hockey can maintain their recent form.  

Prediction: 4-3 to Kymmenelta Baariin

Alliance HT vs Including Me

Including Me has looked like they're finding their form just in time for the playoffs. Three consecutive wins at the end of the regular season and a last 10 game record 9-1-0 is comparable to some teams in much higher seeds. Alliance HT also sports a similar record 8-1-1. The Russian squad sports the more experienced roster, which could be an important factor for them in this one. 

Prediction: 4-2 to Including Me

The Last Line vs Spirit

The Last Line is on an eight win streak just in time for the playoffs. The form of Spirit is quite the opposite. Spirit started the season with a nine win streak beating teams like Toxicity and Bastu. More recently close games against two best teams Golden Nights and Mora IK in their group are prove also what Spirit is capable of, which means you shouldn't look too much at their form from the last five games, as they've generally been against very good teams. I see The Last Line as a minor favorite, but the fact that Spirit has recent clashes against good teams could help them going into this one. 

Prediction: 4-2 to The Last Line

Players to watch

Let's take a look at some players to keep an eye on. As always, a few will get their time in the spotlight, but there are a lot of others out there of similar talent!

@Timotei97 - Bellizzi, 24GP, 47+64=111
The Bellizzi winger is having a great season for himself and was miles ahead of the competition in the regular season despite playing fewer games. Is a difference-maker on the ice every night.

@xAaro89x - FILADELPHIA ACADEMY, 28 GP, 56+35=91
The talented winger is growing to be a great scorer and one to be on the lookout for in the higher leagues. 56 goals is enough for second in the regular season behind the experienced @itspardytime.

@itspardytime - Valco, 30 GP, 58+32=90
The stats speak for themselves. Pardy is a pure goal scorer, but also draws a lot of penalties. 

@Kusimaakari - Tadpole, 30GP, 37+43=80
A very experienced player proven at higher levels. Is a heart-and-soul player for Tadpole and can carry his team far if needed.

@Awptim - Alliance HT, 30GP, 49+28=77
Also one of the more experienced players around, excels at scoring and is a very important piece on the wing for Alliance HT.

@Philip Deemus - Prima eSports, 30 GP, 53+34=87
Has had a few seasons to mature and seems to have really benefited from his appearance in Pro with Lekstugan HC last season. A great scorer.

@ReDMisTi - Arkham Asylum, 30 GP, 26+43=69
Perhaps the most important individual for his team in the division. Redmisti has experience from higher up and has managed to surround himself with talented players that need guidance, and mental strength to be able to take the next step.

@Giinis - Bastu, 30 GP, 82,29 SV%, 1,7 GAA, 7 SO
Could be the best goaltender of the regular season. Despite Bastu struggling a bit from time to time, the team has a lot of potential and Giinis could improve a great deal in the postseason.